Stock Market Long-Term Yield Calculator

Stock-market projection over the years — how it works

Compound growth with monthly contributions: FV = P·(1+r)^n + A·[((1+r)^n − 1)/r], where P is the initial amount, A the monthly contribution, r the monthly rate and n the number of months. Brazilian Ibovespa historical real return (after inflation) sits around 6–8% p.a.; the US S&P 500 around 7% real. Annual volatility is ~20–25%, so drawdowns of 30–50% (2008, 2020) are part of the path.

• TSR vs index — Total Shareholder Return includes reinvested dividends; the headline Ibovespa already does, but B3's IBrX-50 and price indices do not. Compare apples to apples.
• Cheap exposure — ETFs like BOVA11 (Ibovespa) and IVVB11 (S&P 500 in BRL) charge 0.1–0.3% p.a.
• Long horizon — over > 10 years, equities have beaten Brazilian fixed income (CDI) in most rolling windows; below 5 years the dispersion is high.
• Taxation — 15% IR on sales above R$ 20,000/month; ETFs do not have IR isenção.

Brazilian context

For long-term goals — retirement, children's education, FIRE under the 4% rule — equities historically deliver the highest real return. The trade-off is volatility and behavioural risk: selling in a 2008-style drawdown locks in losses and breaks the compounding curve. A diversified portfolio (BR + USA, fixed income buffer) reduces sequence risk.

FAQ

Real or nominal rate? Prefer real (inflation-discounted) for long-term planning. Nominal Selic of 12% with IPCA of 5% is roughly 6.7% real — that is the rate that translates into purchasing power.

What if I stop contributing halfway? The future-value formula breaks into two terms: stop adding A but keep P compounding. The "snowball" effect comes from the principal, not the contributions, after ~15 years.

Is 12% p.a. realistic for the Ibovespa? Nominal, yes in some periods; sustained real terms it is optimistic. Use 7–8% real as a conservative planning anchor.