Stock Market Long-Term Yield Calculator
Simulate stock market long-term yield: initial + monthly contribution × N years × annual rate. Compares to fixed income.
Stock-market projection over the years — how it works
Compound growth with monthly contributions: FV = P·(1+r)^n + A·[((1+r)^n − 1)/r], where P is the initial amount, A the monthly contribution, r the monthly rate and n the number of months. Brazilian Ibovespa historical real return (after inflation) sits around 6–8% p.a.; the US S&P 500 around 7% real. Annual volatility is ~20–25%, so drawdowns of 30–50% (2008, 2020) are part of the path.
- TSR vs index — Total Shareholder Return includes reinvested dividends; the headline Ibovespa already does, but B3's IBrX-50 and price indices do not. Compare apples to apples.
- Cheap exposure — ETFs like
BOVA11(Ibovespa) andIVVB11(S&P 500 in BRL) charge 0.1–0.3% p.a. - Long horizon — over > 10 years, equities have beaten Brazilian fixed income (CDI) in most rolling windows; below 5 years the dispersion is high.
- Taxation — 15% IR on sales above R$ 20,000/month; ETFs do not have IR isenção.
Brazilian context
For long-term goals — retirement, children's education, FIRE under the 4% rule — equities historically deliver the highest real return. The trade-off is volatility and behavioural risk: selling in a 2008-style drawdown locks in losses and breaks the compounding curve. A diversified portfolio (BR + USA, fixed income buffer) reduces sequence risk.
FAQ
Real or nominal rate? Prefer real (inflation-discounted) for long-term planning. Nominal Selic of 12% with IPCA of 5% is roughly 6.7% real — that is the rate that translates into purchasing power.
What if I stop contributing halfway? The future-value formula breaks into two terms: stop adding A but keep P compounding. The "snowball" effect comes from the principal, not the contributions, after ~15 years.
Is 12% p.a. realistic for the Ibovespa? Nominal, yes in some periods; sustained real terms it is optimistic. Use 7–8% real as a conservative planning anchor.
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The results provided by this tool are for general informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute professional, financial, medical, legal, tax or accounting advice. Always confirm important decisions with a qualified professional and official sources.