Treasury IPCA+ Calculator
Simulate Treasury IPCA+: real annual rate + projected IPCA. Applies regressive IR. Shows real and nominal yield.
How Tesouro IPCA+ (NTN-B) returns work
An NTN-B pays IPCA inflation plus a fixed real rate. There are two formats: NTN-B Principal (Tesouro IPCA+, zero-coupon, all paid at maturity) and NTN-B (with semiannual coupons). The gross return formula is M = C · (1 + i_real)^(d/252) · (1 + IPCA)^(d/252), combining the contracted real rate with realized inflation. With 2026 paper trading at roughly 6.5-7% real and an IPCA projection of ~4%, the nominal return sits around 10-11% per year.
Example: R$ 5,000 invested in Tesouro IPCA+ for 5 years at 6.5% real + 4% IPCA gives about R$ 8,330 gross (66% gain). Income tax is regressive (22.5% to 15%) — after 720 days the 15% bracket applies. B3 custody is 0.20% per year, exempt up to R$ 10,000. The Tesouro IPCA+ Aposentadoria (NTN-B1) is designed for gradual retirement withdrawals: it pays monthly coupons after a defined date. Mark-to-market applies — short-term sales can produce losses if real rates rise; for short horizons, Tesouro Selic is the safer pick.
Brazilian context
Tesouro IPCA+ is the textbook tool to protect purchasing power on a horizon greater than 5 years: retirement, children's college fund, long-term reserves. The guaranteed real rate is what defends you against unexpected inflation — fully-fixed-rate bonds erode silently if IPCA jumps. It is the central building block of the conservative pillar of a long-term portfolio in Brazil. Investors buying around 6%+ real rates historically capture the high end of the cycle.
FAQ
What is the real rate? It is the yield above IPCA — purchasing power growth. A 6% real rate means your money grows 6% per year beyond what inflation eats away.
Can I lose money on Tesouro IPCA+? Yes, on the secondary market before maturity. Daily mark-to-market can be sharply negative if long-term real rates rise. Held to maturity, you receive the contracted real rate plus accumulated IPCA.
Principal or with coupons? Principal (zero-coupon) is more tax-efficient for accumulation. With coupons it is useful when you need recurring cash flow.
Is it better than poupança? Yes, by a wide margin in any reasonable scenario. Poupança only matches inflation if Selic falls below 8.5% and even so loses to real interest on Tesouro IPCA+.
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Breakeven Inflation Rate
Computes the breakeven inflation embedded in the gap between a nominal bond and an inflation-linked bond, using the exact Fisher equation: (1 + nominal)/(1 + real) − 1. It's the inflation rate that would equalize the return of the two instruments — above it, the linker wins; below it, the nominal one. The exact version avoids the error of the simple approximation (nominal − real), which overstates inflation by a few basis points. Enter the nominal yield and the real yield.
The results provided by this tool are for general informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute professional, financial, medical, legal, tax or accounting advice. Always confirm important decisions with a qualified professional and official sources.