Treasury IPCA+ Calculator

How Tesouro IPCA+ (NTN-B) returns work

An NTN-B pays IPCA inflation plus a fixed real rate. There are two formats: NTN-B Principal (Tesouro IPCA+, zero-coupon, all paid at maturity) and NTN-B (with semiannual coupons). The gross return formula is M = C · (1 + i_real)^(d/252) · (1 + IPCA)^(d/252), combining the contracted real rate with realized inflation. With 2026 paper trading at roughly 6.5-7% real and an IPCA projection of ~4%, the nominal return sits around 10-11% per year.

Example: R$ 5,000 invested in Tesouro IPCA+ for 5 years at 6.5% real + 4% IPCA gives about R$ 8,330 gross (66% gain). Income tax is regressive (22.5% to 15%) — after 720 days the 15% bracket applies. B3 custody is 0.20% per year, exempt up to R$ 10,000. The Tesouro IPCA+ Aposentadoria (NTN-B1) is designed for gradual retirement withdrawals: it pays monthly coupons after a defined date. Mark-to-market applies — short-term sales can produce losses if real rates rise; for short horizons, Tesouro Selic is the safer pick.

Brazilian context

Tesouro IPCA+ is the textbook tool to protect purchasing power on a horizon greater than 5 years: retirement, children's college fund, long-term reserves. The guaranteed real rate is what defends you against unexpected inflation — fully-fixed-rate bonds erode silently if IPCA jumps. It is the central building block of the conservative pillar of a long-term portfolio in Brazil. Investors buying around 6%+ real rates historically capture the high end of the cycle.

FAQ

What is the real rate? It is the yield above IPCA — purchasing power growth. A 6% real rate means your money grows 6% per year beyond what inflation eats away.

Can I lose money on Tesouro IPCA+? Yes, on the secondary market before maturity. Daily mark-to-market can be sharply negative if long-term real rates rise. Held to maturity, you receive the contracted real rate plus accumulated IPCA.

Principal or with coupons? Principal (zero-coupon) is more tax-efficient for accumulation. With coupons it is useful when you need recurring cash flow.

Is it better than poupança? Yes, by a wide margin in any reasonable scenario. Poupança only matches inflation if Selic falls below 8.5% and even so loses to real interest on Tesouro IPCA+.