xG (Expected Goals) Estimator
Enter shot distance in metres and angle in degrees, 0 from the side and 90 head-on, for an expected goals value from 0 to 1 from a simple logistic model.
xG (0-1)
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xG (Expected Goals): the modern football metric
xG (Expected Goals) is the average probability of a shot becoming a goal in a similar situation, based on features such as distance to goal, angle, body part (foot / head), defensive pressure, type of assist and game state. Machine-learning models are trained on hundreds of thousands of historical shots. An xG of 0.30 means a shot of that quality is converted 30% of the time on average; a penalty is around xG 0.76. Comparing a team's actual goals to its xG reveals whether results are luck, finishing skill or goalkeeper performance. Leading providers: StatsBomb, Opta, FBref.
Applications
Used in tactical analysis (chance quality vs quantity), scouting — Liverpool and Brentford were pioneers in basing recruitment on xG — and intensively at Manchester City for opponent analysis. Also central to fantasy football, betting markets and broadcast commentary.
FAQ
What's the xG of a penalty? Around 0.76 — penalties are converted about 76% of the time on professional average.
If my team has higher xG but loses, is it bad luck? Usually yes over short samples. Over 10+ matches, big gaps between xG and actual goals tend to signal finishing or goalkeeping issues, not just variance.
Does xG account for the goalkeeper? Basic xG doesn't; advanced variants like xGOT (Expected Goals on Target) and post-shot xG include shot placement and keeper context.
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The results provided by this tool are for general informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute professional, financial, medical, legal, tax or accounting advice. Always confirm important decisions with a qualified professional and official sources.