Corn Yield per Hectare by Climate

Corn yield with climate factor (t/ha)

Total corn production gets estimated as production_t = area_ha × base_yield_t_ha × climate_factor. That climate factor, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.2, rolls up the rain during flowering (VT/R1) and grain-filling along with heat stress and dry spells. Brazil plants corn in two windows. The summer crop (1ª safra) goes in from August to November and averages around 5,500 kg/ha. The winter crop (2ª safra / safrinha) is planted January to March and harvested June to August, landing at roughly the same 5,500 kg/ha, though it carries more climate risk since it leans on whatever rain is left at the end of the wet season.

Put a field under centre-pivot irrigation and manage it well, and yields run past 12,000 kg/ha (200 sc/ha). The biggest producing states are Mato Grosso, Paraná, Mato Grosso do Sul and Goiás, and MT on its own accounts for about half of what the country grows. Most of the area is planted to Bt transgenic corn (lepidopteran resistance) and stacked Bt+RR events, well over 80% of it. Public research is led by EMBRAPA Milho e Sorgo in Sete Lagoas, MG.

Applications

The estimate feeds into farm planning, feed-supply forecasts for poultry, swine and dairy operations, sizing of corn-ethanol plants in Mato Grosso, hedging on B3 and CBOT, rural credit cash-flow and CPR contracts. Cooperatives lean on it to schedule drying and storage and to work out rail and truck logistics through the FIOL/Ferrogrão and Arco Norte corridors.

FAQ

What yield can the second crop (safrinha) deliver? In a normal year, somewhere around 5,000–6,500 kg/ha. If the rainy season cuts off early, which tends to happen in a La Niña, it can fall to 3,500–4,500 kg/ha.

Is irrigated corn worth it? Where you have the water and the energy, yes. Yields of 12,000–14,000 kg/ha and steadier results pay back the capex on the pivots and the electricity bill.

How is yield reported? In Brazil the usual unit is sacks (60 kg) per hectare, so 100 sc/ha comes to 6,000 kg/ha, or 6 t/ha.